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2020年新型冠狀病毒疫情對房價的影響

客觀的分析03年疫情以后房價上漲,多個方面:

1、中國那時候剛加入世貿組織不久,經濟處于高速增長期,相應的那個時間段的GDP,M1 M2 等經濟指標都處于高速增長的階段。

2、03年那個時候中國的樓市剛好處于起步不久的階段,整個房地產在經濟中占比不大,有很大的上漲空間。

3、03年疫情以后政府出臺了經濟刺激計劃,直接推動了當時體量并不大的房地產。

反觀這次疫情,其影響的廣度和深度都比03年非典大,對于房地產的沖擊不言而喻,而樓主提到疫情以后又會報復性上漲的可能性,我覺得根本沒有,也是幾個方面分析:

1、現在的房地產體量已經遠遠不是03年那時候能比的了,現在的房地產總量在GDP中的占比已經非常高了,如果繼續上漲,就需要海量的貨幣支撐,錢怎么來?

2、居民杠桿率,03年的居民杠桿率很低,居民存款率很高,反觀現在,在經歷了前兩年樓市暴漲以后,全民買房導致居民杠桿率很高,這次疫情的影響會導致居民更加缺錢,總結:老百姓沒錢了。

3、這幾年樓市暴漲導致居民大量可支配被鎖死,居民杠桿率大幅攀升,其實帶來的負面影響已經出現了,居民因為可支配收入減少,另外還要支付銀行的月供,消費能力已經降低了很多了,所以這幾年實體經濟越來越困難,如果繼續推高房價,會導致更多的居民存款和銀行的杠桿資金被鎖死,后果是老百姓更加缺錢,導致消費更加蕭條,惡性循環,現在的實體已經到了危難的關頭,保根基?還是推房價?這并不是選擇題。

    Objective analysis of the housing price rise after the 2003 epidemic, in many aspects:

1. Just after China's accession to the WTO at that time, its economy was in a period of high-speed growth, and its GDP, M1 m2 and other economic indicators were in a period of high-speed growth.

2. At that time in 2003, China's real estate market was just in its infancy. The whole real estate accounted for a small proportion in the economy, and there was a lot of room for growth.

3. After the outbreak of 2003, the government issued an economic stimulus plan, which directly promoted the small real estate at that time.

In contrast, the scope and depth of the impact of this epidemic is greater than that of SARS in 2003, and the impact on real estate is self-evident. The landlord mentioned the possibility of retaliatory increase after the epidemic, which I don't think is at all, but also analyzed in several aspects:

1. The curren real estate volume is far from comparable in 2003. The total real estate volume now accounts for a very high proportion of GDP. If it continues to rise, it will need massive monetary support. How can money come from?

2. In 2003, the leverage rate of residents was very low, and the deposit rate of residents was very high. Now, after two years of property market boom, people buy houses, which leads to high leverage rate of residents. The impact of this epidemic will lead to more lack of money for residents. Conclusion: people have no money.

3. In recent years, the rapid rise of the real estate market has resulted in a large number of residents being locked up at their disposal, and the leverage ratio of residents has increased significantly. In fact, the negative impact has already occurred. Because of the decrease of disposable income, residents have to pay for the monthly supply of banks, and the consumption capacity has decreased a lot, so the real economy has become more and more difficult in recent years. If the housing price continues to rise, more residents will be saved The result is that people are even more short of money, leading to a more depressed consumption and vicious circle. Now the entity has reached a critical juncture, baogenji? Or pushing house prices? This is not a multiple choice question.


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